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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still